Dynamical Weather Discussion: East Coast Severe Weather Event For Sunday March 28, 2021

A weather system that will affect the Deep South today will move eastward to the east coast states on your Sunday.  A line of broken storms is expected from PA to Alabama so read on for details …

Today’s event in North Carolina would be considered a ‘surprise’ event.  Even the folks at WRAL in Raleigh stated today should not have had rotating storms, or supercells.  But, remember, the National Weather Force tornado model issued a tornado watch for the exact areas that saw 4 supercells move through, including directly over the Downtown Raleigh area.  Some of these cells had strong rotation so we could see damaging wind reports that will turn into a tornado report in a couple days due to surveys being down.  This event forecast article for records can be viewed by clicking here.

Now what about for Sunday?  One thing I noticed off the bat was my model was weak with the tornado dynamics.  In fact, it is not showing much of anything that needs attention or a watch.  I went over a few things and I noticed the reason it is doing that is the lack of backing winds at the surface.  The winds across the entire red-shaded area (image in the article) from AL to PA/NJ will be southwesterly, which if along a broken line of storms has a tough time at producing the needed surface rotation for a tornado.  On top of that, divergence in the upper levels is not that strong.   So what I do expect is lines of storms for wind/hail along the entire east coast state length from PA/NJ to AL, but minimal tornado potential.

At least to me, what North Carolina saw today would be worse than what crosses over on your Sunday.  I’ll run the model again in the morning and post the update …

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