National Weather Force has issued a Tornado Watch/Outlook effective this evening and going until 10pm CDT for southwestern Kansas & western Oklahoma.
A shortwave trough is expected to approach the area from the southwest. As it approaches the central plains, it will deepen and meet low-level moisture ahead of a sharpening dryline (that is moving slowly east). This combined with very high levels of instability will bring a risk for destructive hail and damaging winds in excess of 75+ mph. Moreover, there will be deep layer shear that will support super-cellular storms. This combined with some low level-shear will also bring a tornado risk especially for Western Oklahoma. These storms will form around 4pm CDT and move eastward with time. The best given time for tornadoes looks to be around sunset for western Oklahoma where the low-level shear will maximize temporarily. These storms will become more linear overnight with the main risk being damaging winds. Storms will dissipate once they move out of the favorable environment area east of the watch.
Stay tuned for more updates.
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Sina⚡⚡
A forecaster with over 10+ years of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms. Completely self taught in severe weather forecasting and computer science with a foundation from UNCO in Atmospheric Science. Moreover, he has been developing new tools to increase the chances of accurately forecasting large hail and tornadoes. A big contributor of National Weather Force bringing accuracy, timely information, and tools for keeping those impacted informed.
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