National Weather Force has issued a Tornado Watch/Outlook effective this evening and going until sunrise Sunday for western & central Oklahoma.
A shortwave trough is expected to approach the area from Northwest impacting the area through late tonight with the most severe storms being when everyone is asleep. As it approaches the area, it will meet low-level moisture along surface boundaries. This combined with high levels of instability will bring a risk for destructive hail and damaging winds in excess of 70+ mph. Moreover, there will be deep layer shear that will support super-cellular storms. This combined with increasing low level-shear (throughout the night) will also bring a tornado risk especially for Western Oklahoma. Some areas may see some capping issues, however if any storms form, they will be very explosive in nature. These storms will most likely form late tonight and move eastward with time. The best given time for tornadoes looks to be around this evening through tonight for western Oklahoma where the low-level shear will maximize temporarily. These storms will become more linear overnight with the main risk being damaging winds as they move through the rest of the area. Storms will dissipate once they move out of the favorable environment.
Severe storms are expected to form and become a line as they continue pushing to the east (shown below).
Other areas of Oklahoma will also need to continue to monitor for potential outflow boundaries that may form and create more convection across the area through Sunday morning as well. These storms will be capable of all severe hazards throughout the night.
Stay tuned for more updates.
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Sina⚡⚡
A forecaster with over 10+ years of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms. Completely self taught in severe weather forecasting and computer science with a foundation from UNCO in Atmospheric Science. Moreover, he has been developing new tools to increase the chances of accurately forecasting large hail and tornadoes. A big contributor of National Weather Force bringing accuracy, timely information, and tools for keeping those impacted informed.
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