As highlighted in the earlier weather outlook, the region is expected to see the formation of severe storms due to the instability in the atmosphere. The start of storm activity, or convective initiation, should take place across western Kentucky and southern Illinois around 3pm. More activity is also anticipated throughout the TN region given the unstable atmosphere as well. Initially isolated storm cells are expected to rapidly expand in scale, facilitated by wind shear that runs largely parallel to the boundaries of these storms.
Given the heightened instability and effective bulk wind shear, which represents a change in wind speed and direction with height, we expect the storm activity to maintain its organization as it progresses into central Kentucky during the late afternoon and into the evening hours.
At first, these storms, due to their isolated nature, are likely to produce large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps even an isolated tornado, especially considering the slight low-level wind shear present. However, as the evening progresses, these storms are expected to form a more defined line, or squall line, shifting the primary risk towards damaging wind gusts.
Main risk: large hail, damaging winds and tornado possible (discreet cells)
Timing: Afternoon into evening/overnight from west to east forming on the borders of IL/KY and throughout the region moving eastward.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor to the National Weather Force, they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information, as well as developing tools to keep those affected well-informed.
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