In the morning, there will likely be minimal or scattered thunderstorm activity as the atmosphere continue to have ongoing activity. Throughout the day, a decent cap will inhibit storm development, but this will also contribute to increasing atmospheric instability. The cap is expected to weaken as the evening comes (Tuesday evening). Therefore, by evening or nightfall, storms are expected to form along the warm front from MO across TN and move southeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Lower Ohio Valley regions. These storms have the potential to organize into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) due to the presence of downward instability and moderate mid-level shear. The primary concern associated with these storms will be the risk of strong straight-line winds, which could persist throughout the night and into the morning hours. The more concentrated area for impact looks to be around the borders of TN, AR, MO and KY and moving southeast across TN and into portions south as it dissipates into the early morning hours of Wednesday.
Main risk: damaging straight-line winds, local flooding given heavy rainfall.
Timing: overnight into early morning Wed as it pushes southeast across the impacted area.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor to the National Weather Force, they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information, as well as developing tools to keep those affected well-informed.
NOTE: The alerts and outlooks posted here are customary made to inform. At times, which is often, you will see an alert forecast posted on here that you do not see elsewhere. That is fine, the track record of the main office is very high so maintain to follow an event when posted. These are custom concentrated alerts and outlooks that are created by National Weather Force team of experts. They do not intend to represent the NWS or SPC.