An approaching shortwave trough is expected to create favorable conditions for thunderstorm development across the Northern Plains. The combination of surface heating, surface dew points in the mid-60s, and moderately steep temperature differences with height will lead to a northward-narrowing corridor of warm-sector, moderate instability, with the potential for higher values in certain areas. These atmospheric factors create an environment conducive to the formation of thunderstorms capable of becoming severe.
In the vicinity of the warm front, there will be increased effective shear, suggesting the possibility of a mix of multi-cell and supercell thunderstorms. As these storms progress, they may eventually organize into a linear structure, sweeping across the impacted area. Initially, the thunderstorms may pose a significant threat of large hail due to the enhanced shear. However, as the convection becomes more organized and storms merge, the hail threat may diminish, giving way to a higher risk of damaging winds during the evening and overnight hours.
The central Dakotas, extending southward into Nebraska, are likely to experience the initial development of thunderstorms near surface fronts and troughs. The Dakotas region may see a higher coverage and longer duration of convection due to stronger low-level convergence. This enhanced convergence could lead to the formation of a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), which will move southeastward along the warm front bringing mainly damaging winds as it moves through.
Main risk: large hail, damaging straight-line winds, local flooding given heavy rainfall.
Timing: Storms expected to form in the middle of SD and the vicinity of the warm front around the evening (6pm into overnight) sweeping through east SD into portions of IA/MN.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor to the National Weather Force, they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information, as well as developing tools to keep those affected well-informed.
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