Thunderstorms are expected to form in the vicinity of a warm front stretching across Indiana, and northeastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois area. The presence of deep and rich moisture in this region provides favorable conditions for their development. As these storms progress, they are likely to intensify and increase in coverage while moving over a much more destabilized atmosphere combined with moderate mid-level shear along the northeastern Midwest.
The initial thunderstorm activity may begin as discrete or clustered storms, but with time, they could organize into a more structured squall line due to the downward instability prevailing in the area. The primary risks associated with these storms are large hail, damaging winds, and embedded tornadoes. Ahead of a low pressure in the region is expected to increase the low-level shear for a certain period across portions of northern IN, OH,MI, contributing to the potential for tornado formation in the bow echo and perhaps discrete cells.
The most concentrated area for these storms appears to be along north Indiana, northern Ohio, extending into portions of Michigan. Residents in these regions should be prepared for severe weather conditions and stay updated with the latest weather forecasts and advisories to ensure their safety.
Main risk: large hail, damaging straight-line winds and perhaps a few embedded tornadoes.
Timing: Afternoon/Evening from west to east with the most concentrated area being in northeastern Indiana, northern Ohio and portions of Michigan.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor to the National Weather Force, they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information, as well as developing tools to keep those affected well-informed.
NOTE: The alerts and outlooks posted here are customary made to inform. At times, which is often, you will see an alert forecast posted on here that you do not see elsewhere. That is fine, the track record of the main office is very high so maintain to follow an event when posted. These are custom concentrated alerts and outlooks that are created by National Weather Force team of experts. They do not intend to represent the NWS or SPC.