Additional disturbances are expected to pass through the lower Plains in the coming hours. Initially, much of the region will be capped, preventing significant convective activity, especially in the southern areas. However, as the cap weakens toward the north, upslope low-level flow persists in the Colorado/Montana region. When combined with mid-level moisture, elevated instability, and some elevated bulk shear, it sets the stage for a risk of severe thunderstorms extending from portions of Colorado and Montana eastward into Nebraska and South Dakota overnight.
These thunderstorms will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds. While there is mid-level shear, the risk for tornadoes will be minimal due to very limited low-level shear. The development of storms is expected to begin in the northeastern portion of Colorado, western Nebraska, and western South Dakota during the late evening and overnight hours. Some of these storms may persist and organize into a squall line, advancing eastward into other portions of Nebraska.
Main risk: large hail, damaging straight-line winds, tornado possible but not likely
Timing: Very late evening and mainly over-night from west to east across northeastern CO into NE and portions of SD.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor to the National Weather Force, they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information, as well as developing tools to keep those affected well-informed.
NOTE: The alerts and outlooks posted here are customary made to inform. At times, which is often, you will see an alert forecast posted on here that you do not see elsewhere. That is fine, the track record of the main office is very high so maintain to follow an event when posted. These are custom concentrated alerts and outlooks that are created by National Weather Force team of experts.