A cold front is expected to move east-southeast across North Dakota and adjacent states. This shift will result in significant lift. Combined with rich low-level moisture, increased instability, and mid-level shear, conditions become ripe for the formation and escalation of thunderstorms across the upper Northern Plains mainly across ND and SD. These cluster storms initially pose a threat of large hail, which is expected to transition to damaging winds along the cold front during the evening. However, as these storm lines progress away from the unstable air mass primarily in North Dakota, their intensity is projected to decrease overnight.
Here is a graphic of storms forming to our west and moving to the east across mainly ND and north central SD.
Main risk: large hail, damaging straight-line winds, tornado possible but not likely.
Timing: Storms are expected to form around 3-5pm CDT across the western portions of ND and strengthen as they move across ND. For the remainder of the evening these storms will continue move across ND central and east then diminishing as they move away from the less unstable airmass in WI.
Locations Impacted: western ND, central ND and eastern ND with less activity to southeast ND.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor to the National Weather Force, they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information, as well as developing tools to keep those affected well-informed.
NOTE: The alerts and outlooks posted here are customary made to inform. At times, which is often, you will see an alert forecast posted on here that you do not see elsewhere. That is fine, the track record of the main office is very high so maintain to follow an event when posted. These are custom concentrated alerts and outlooks that are created by National Weather Force team of experts.