For MN and WI:
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a strong shortwave trough stretches from CO to the Dakotas, situated in a moist environment. This trough will enhance atmospheric lifting. At the surface, a nearly stationary trailing cold front is expected to stall around the Midwest, extending from MN through MO and into Oklahoma. This combined with already a moist environment with effective shear in the 40s and 50 kts. Scattered thunderstorms will prevail given these ingredients and allow for storms to form across the areas of MN especially northward and into WI. These storms will continue to organize throughout the evening and become a line of storms as the push eastward across the impacted area. The main risk will be damaging winds and large hail especially in more discreet storms. That being said, a low risk of a tornado is possible given slight low level shear veering around the Low Pressure. These storms will form as soon as the afternoon and continue to increase becoming widespread by the evening across MN.
Main risk: large hail, damaging straight-line winds mainly. Very low risk for a tornado given the low amounts of low-level shear.
Timing: Storms are expected to form in MN around this evening especially and continue to push eastward into WI area bordering and continue to strengthen with time through the rest of the impacted region.
Locations Impacted: MN east, north northeast, central; WI west, and possibly central before dissipating from more stable air eastward.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor to the National Weather Force, they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information, as well as developing tools to keep those affected well-informed.
NOTE: The alerts and outlooks posted here are customary made to inform. At times, which is often, you will see an alert forecast posted on here that you do not see elsewhere. That is fine, the track record of the main office is very high so maintain to follow an event when posted. These are custom concentrated alerts and outlooks that are created by National Weather Force team of experts.