For PA through VA and portions of NY:
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a weakening trough continues to move across the Greater Lakes, heading northeastward, creating more lift. At the surface, a continually weakening cold front progresses eastward, expected to sweep through the New England area by this afternoon. Ahead of this front, warm air advection and elevated instability will allow for clusters of thunderstorms to form, moving eastward. Effective shear in New England and parts of the northeast is estimated to be between 20-30 kts. This will enable these storms to organize to some extent, potentially developing into severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. As daylight heating destabilizes the atmosphere, these storms are expected to form in the afternoon, intensifying into the evening. Anticipate storm clusters in the western portions of WV, PA, and portions of central/eastern NY. Due to an extreme lack of low-level shear, the risk for tornadoes is very low. These storms will continue their eastward progression, impacting areas such as Washington D.C. and central to eastern parts of PA, before diminishing overnight. A few storms also potentially impacting other areas of the Northeast given the scattered risk for storms along the front.
Visualization of Storms and Mesoanalysis:
Main risk: large hail, damaging straight-line winds mainly. Very low risk for a tornado given the limited low-level shear.
Timing: Storms are expected to form ahead and along the weakening front scattered in nature from VA upward through PA and into portions of NY around 1-3pm EDT and move eastward across the impacted areas. Given the weakening cold front less advection in a more stable airmass will cause these storms to dissipate during the night as daylight heating dissipate so storms will be a lot less long lived except for some local spots across TN, MS area.
Locations Impacted: VA east most likely impacting DC, PA central and east; NY central and portions of east possible.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor to the National Weather Force, they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information, as well as developing tools to keep those affected well-informed.
NOTE: The alerts and outlooks posted here are customary made to inform. At times, which is often, you will see an alert forecast posted on here that you do not see elsewhere. That is fine, the track record of the main office is very high so maintain to follow an event when posted. These are custom concentrated alerts and outlooks that are created by National Weather Force team of experts.