TX & OK Panhandle, OK Down Through Western TX:
As destabilization intensifies this afternoon, an increased concentration of stronger to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop across parts of the TX and Oklahoma Panhandle, with broader coverage in western TX. Central and eastern Oklahoma is likely to remain capped, preventing the formation of organized storms. Any potential activity will be primarily in the northwest and the Panhandle. These storms have the potential to spontaneously produce severe weather, particularly between 3-5pm CDT, with all kinds of hazards, especially large hail. As the effects of daylight heating wane, so will the intensity of the storms in western TX. As they move eastward into a more stable air mass, they will diminish further during the late evening and overnight.
Approximate Timing of Storm Coverage:
Forecast Details:
At the upper levels, an atmospheric trough is shifting eastward over the Plains. Concurrently, a cold front is advancing across the northern and central Plains at the surface. A low-pressure system is forecasted to develop over KS, likely moving northeastward over time, with the most concentrated severe weather anticipated in KS and NE. To the south of this system, a dryline spans the central to southern Plains. Given the dew points in the mid 60s ahead of the dryline and instability measures between 2000-2500 J/kg, the south and central Plains are primed for severe storms. These storms may produce hazards such as large hail, measuring up to 2-3 inches, and intense straight-line winds, particularly later in the evening. The severity is expected to taper off rapidly as the effects of daylight heating wane and the atmosphere becomes more stable to the east.
Main risk: Very Large hail 2-3 inches, damaging straight-line winds, tornado possible but not main risk.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO and an IT background from WGU. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor to the National Weather Force, they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information, as well as developing tools to keep those affected well-informed.
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