National Weather Force has issued a Severe T-Storm Advisory effective from 2 PM to 12 AM eastern time for conditions right for severe storms.
Zones affected: southwest, south, north, northeast, east and central NY; southwest, south, southeast, central and portions of northern VT; west, northwest, southwest, central, northeast, east MA; southwest, south, southeast, central ME.
Discussion: Surface dew points in the low 70s are expected in central and eastern New York into Maine today afternoon. As the day heats up, this moisture will create a moderately unstable atmosphere, with strong instability expected in the next few hours over the area. Two MCVs in the mid-level flow will help trigger scattered to widespread thunderstorms this afternoon.
Overall wind shear will be weak, especially further south, leading to mostly short-lived storms. However, some storms might group together into loosely organized clusters, especially where shear reaches around 15-25 knots ahead of the leading disturbance. The most likely area for this activity is from the Champlain Valley stretching into southern Maine region. The main threats are strong to isolated severe wind gusts of 55-65 mph, which could cause scattered tree damage, and local large hail.
Main risk: large hail, damaging winds and CG (cloud to ground) lightning.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO and an IT background from WGU. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor and partner at National Weather Force Innovations LLC, they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information. Additionally, they have been instrumental in developing tools and organizing projects that focus on accuracy and performance, ensuring those affected are well-informed.