Brief Outlook:
Severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Southeast, including North Florida, Georgia, and coastal South Carolina, with risks of damaging winds and hail. Check below for further details, timing and much more information.
States and Cities Impacted: Florida (Tallahassee), Georgia (Atlanta), South Carolina (Charleston).
Detailed Forecast:
An upper-level trough will continue to influence the weather in the Southeast. A surface front will push into the region, interacting with a very moisture-rich boundary layer with surface dewpoints commonly in the low/mid 70s F and precipitable water near 2 inches. This setup will provide modest mid/upper-level lapse rates and weak to moderate shear around 20-25 knots, conducive to multicellular thunderstorm development capable of producing damaging winds and hail.
At the surface, instability values are expected to reach around 2000-3000 J/kg by the afternoon. The strong surface heating will enhance thunderstorm development along the frontal boundary, sea breeze, and differential heating boundaries. These storms are likely to produce damaging winds and hail, particularly in areas north of the remaining morning cloud cover.
Timing:
Ongoing convection from Sunday evening may leave some cloud debris into Monday morning. Surface heating will be most pronounced north of the remaining clouds, with severe thunderstorms likely initiating by early afternoon. Peak activity is expected from mid-afternoon to early evening, with the storms expected to weaken after sunset.
Main Impact: damaging winds, hail and cg (cloud to ground lightning).
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO and an IT background from WGU. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor and partner at National Weather Force Innovations LLC, they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information. Additionally, they have been instrumental in developing tools and organizing projects that focus on accuracy and performance, ensuring those affected are well-informed.