Brief Outlook:
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Northern and Central Plains, with risks of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. Check below for further details, timing and much more information.
States and Cities Impacted: South Dakota (Sioux Falls, Rapid City), Nebraska (Omaha, Lincoln), Kansas (Topeka).
Detailed Forecast:
An upper-level trough will advance eastward into the northern Rockies and northern Plains, leading to significant severe weather potential in the region. Enhanced wind shear, with values around 40-50 knots in the 0-6 km layer, will support organized storm structures, including supercells capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and potentially a few tornadoes.
At the surface, instability values are expected to reach 2000-3000 J/kg, particularly in southern South Dakota, northern Nebraska, and parts of Kansas. A surface trough will develop over the High Plains, with south/southeasterly low-level winds maintaining moisture in the region. The interaction of this moisture-rich air with the advancing upper-level trough will create an environment conducive to severe thunderstorm development, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Timing:
The day will start with calm conditions and potential morning cloud cover. By late afternoon, severe thunderstorms are expected to initiate near the surface trough and advancing front. Peak activity is expected from mid-afternoon to early evening, with storms becoming more linear, increasing the threat of damaging winds. These storms are likely to diminish in intensity by late evening.
Main Impact: damaging winds, large hail, a few tornadoes & lightning.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO and an IT background from WGU. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor, partner and Co-Owner at National Weather Force Innovations LLC (which own NWF, SCWF, AZWF and DWF), they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information. Additionally, they have been instrumental in developing tools and organizing projects that focus on accuracy and performance, ensuring those affected are well-informed.