Brief Outlook:
Severe thunderstorms are expected in New England from early afternoon to evening. Check below for further details, timing and much more information.
States and Cities Impacted: Maine (Portland), New Hampshire (Manchester), Massachusetts (Boston).
Detailed Forecast:
A shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery glancing New England during the afternoon and evening. Enhanced mid-level flow, with values from 40 to 50 knots at 500 mb, will contribute to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40 knots of deep-layer shear. This setup will enhance the potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail.
At the surface, instability values are expected to reach around 1000-1500 J/kg, with temperatures warming into the mid 80s to low 90s. Despite relatively warm temperatures aloft and poor lapse rates, the interaction of this unstable air with the advancing shortwave trough will create a favorable environment for severe thunderstorm development.
Timing:
Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures into the mid 80s to low 90s. Thunderstorms are likely to initiate by early afternoon, with peak activity expected from mid-afternoon to early evening. These storms will weaken after sunset.
Main Impact: damaging winds, large hail, and lightning.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
With over a decade of experience in forecasting severe thunderstorms, this individual is a seasoned forecaster and developer. Their expertise in severe weather forecasting and computer science is entirely self-taught, complemented by a foundation in Atmospheric Science from UNCO and an IT background from WGU. They have dedicated their efforts to developing innovative tools that enhance the accuracy of analyzing large hail and tornadoes. As a significant contributor, partner and Co-Owner at National Weather Force Innovations LLC (which own NWF, SCWF, AZWF and DWF), they have played a crucial role in providing accurate and timely information. Additionally, they have been instrumental in developing tools and organizing projects that focus on accuracy and performance, ensuring those affected are well-informed.