Brief Outlook:
Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota from the late evening into overnight. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. Refer to the detailed forecast for further specifics below.
Region Impacted: Northern Plains
States and Cities Impacted: North Dakota (Bismarck, Fargo), Minnesota (Minneapolis, Duluth).
Detailed Forecast:
An upper-level low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay. Across the Northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will advance northeastward into eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Enhanced mid-level flow will result in wind shear values around 40-50 knots in the 0-6 km layer, supporting organized storm structures, including supercells.
At the surface, instability values are expected to reach 1500-2000 J/kg across the region. Low-level moisture with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will contribute to the instability. The combination of upper-level dynamics and surface conditions will create a favorable environment for severe thunderstorm development, with a mix of discrete and linear storm modes possible.
Timing:
Storms are expected to initiate by late evening in eastern North Dakota and move into Minnesota by overnight. Peak activity will likely occur from late evening, with the most severe storms occurring during this period. The storms are expected to weaken by later overnight as they move into less favorable conditions.
Main Impact: damaging winds, large hail, very low risk for isolated tornadoes and lightning.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
Managing Partner/CTO & Lead Forecaster of NWF Innovations, NWF Networks