Brief Outlook:
Severe thunderstorms are expected in parts of eastern Colorado from the afternoon into the evening. The main risk for these storms will be damaging winds and localized large hail. Check below for more details and timing.
Region Impacted: Eastern & Portions of Central Colorado
States and Cities Impacted: Colorado (Colorado Springs, Pueblo, Sterling).
Upper-Level Dynamics:
An upper-level ridge will persist across the western U.S., while westerly flow enhances over Colorado. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this flow, with a prominent shortwave trough moving into eastern Colorado by the afternoon. This setup will result in decent vertical wind shear, with values around 25-30 knots in the 0-6 km layer, supporting organized storm structures, including a few cells as well.
Surface Conditions:
At the surface, instability values are expected to reach 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern Colorado especially. Low-level moisture with surface dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to this instability. Effective shear will support a few severe storms, and somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates will promote strong updrafts with storms. Given the ingredients present, a few storms may also form across central CO and into Eastern CO marginally becoming severe as well. Storms are expected to be initially discrete before potentially forming clusters, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds although mostly local.
Timing:
Storms are expected to initiate in the terrains/mountains despite the lack of ascend and move east by late afternoon in eastern Colorado, continuing through the late evening. Peak activity will likely occur from late afternoon through the evening, with the most severe storms occurring during this period. The storms are expected to weaken by late evening as they move into less favorable conditions.
Main Impact: damaging winds, large hail and lightning.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
Managing Partner and Lead Forecaster of NWF Innovations & NWF Networks