Brief Outlook:
On Monday, November 18, 2024, the Southern Plains, particularly northeast Texas and southern Oklahoma, are expected to experience severe weather conditions as an ongoing line of storms moves eastward. Cities such as Dallas, Fort Worth, and Tulsa are likely to encounter significant impacts from damaging winds, and potential isolated tornadoes during the morning hours and continuing into the afternoon before sweeping through quickly.
Upper Levels:
A negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern Plains is expected to quickly advance into the Mississippi Valley by Monday. This dynamic upper-level setup will amplify the atmospheric conditions conducive to severe thunderstorm development.
Surface Forecast:
An ongoing line of storms is anticipated to be sweeping through the region by early Monday, propelled by a rapidly deepening surface low. The associated cold front will interact with a moderately unstable air mass characterized by CAPE values around 500-700 J/kg. Although these instability values are moderate, the strong dynamic lifting and substantial wind shear of 50-60 knots are expected to enhance storm organization and potential severity. This environment may support both linear and discrete supercell structures, posing risks of damaging winds, and embedded tornadoes.
Timing:
The severe storms are forecast to be active in the morning and will likely intensify as they move eastward through the Southern Plains. The highest risk period is expected to extend from late morning through the afternoon, particularly affecting areas like Dallas, Fort Worth, and Tulsa. The potential for severe weather will diminish by late afternoon as the system progresses eastward and encounters less favorable atmospheric conditions.
States & Cities Impacted:
Significant severe weather impacts are anticipated across northeast Texas and southern Oklahoma, with major urban centers such as Dallas, Fort Worth, and Tulsa in the path of these storms.
Main impact: isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and lightning.
Stay tuned for more updates.
Sina⚡⚡
Co-Owner/CIO and Lead Forecaster of NWF Innovations & NWF Networks; Founder of WeatherWise Innovations